Today, 1st December 2019, there is a #.GlobalFlagRaising campaign as announced by @BennyWenda. This thread will not analyse that campaign, but a new finding by #DroneEmprit on an international #InfluenceOperation using Facebook Pages for #.FreeWestPapua.
When we search for “Free West Papua” on Facebook, we found dozens of Facebook Pages related to “Free West Papua Campaign.” Below is some of the search results. “Free West Papua Campaign” page is the most popular one, followed by more than 390k users.
There are several Facebook Pages related to the “Free West Papua Campaign”, but created based on countries or cities where the campaigns are conducted. Below we can find the campaign pages in The Netherlands, Papua New Guinea, Denmark, Sydney, and Tasmania.
And these are campaign pages in Micronesia, South Australia, Aotearoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Philippines, Queensland, and USA.
Free West Papua Campaign Page It is managed by 4 people from United Kingdom, and was created on May 30, 2008. More than 390k people like this page. Other Facebook Pages liked by this page are mostly related to ”free west papua”. Its upcoming events is “Global Flag Raising”.
Trend and Volume of Conversations in FWP Campaign Page From 23rd Sept to 30th Nov 2019, the trend was high on Sept – Oct, and tend to be lower on November. The protest in Wamena produced a lot of conversation. The #.GlobalFlagRaising campaign was launched internationally.
Most Shared Posts from FWP Campaign Page The post campaigning the #.GlobalFlagRaising is the most shared one. It follows the post from @BennyWenda declared that December 1, 2019 is a ’Day of Mourning’.
Hashtags in the FWP Campaign Page Top hashtags in this Page are aimed at one main goal: #.FreeWestPapua. Other hashtags to drive Papuan and International toward that goal: promoting #.Referandum, urging #.WestPapuaUprising, #.BoycottBALI, and #.GlobalFlagRaising.
Conversation Pattern by Weekdays and Time of Day The most active days of the conversation in the “Free West Papua Campaign” page are Monday, Thursday, and Sunday. The most active hour is at 5 and 18 (West Indonesia Time), or 9 and 22 (Canberra, Australia).
The Trend of Active Commenters in Free West Papua Campaign In total, there are at least 3k users who actively give comments on the posts in this Facebook Page. The trend was high in the beginning (Sep) and then slowing down.
Most Active Commenters in Free West Papua Campaign Page These are the top 29 users based on the number of their comments in the Free West Papua Campaign page. User Alan Knox is the most active, followed by Nes Lowe, Wybee Marang Dannah, etc.
Profiles of The Most Active Users in the FWP Campaign From the top 8 most active users below, we can see that they don’t live in Papua but in other country, especially Australia. For example Alan Knox' profile, friends, and photos show that he is not a Papuan.
Social Network of Users and Page in the FWP Campaign This social network shows the page in the center, and active Facebook users as its satellites. The page node and member nodes are connected by links. The bigger the node, the more the comments.
Social Network of Users and Posts in the FWP Campaign This social network shows all posts by the admin of Free West Papua Campaign page, and users who give comments to the posts. Some users commented to many posts.
Alan Knox’s Direct Network to Commented Posts The highlight in this social network shows how user Alan Knox connected directly to all posts he commented. He seems commented to almost every posts in the Free West Papua Campaign page.
Nes Lowe’s Direct Network to Commented Posts The highlight in this social network shows how user Nes Lowe connected directly to all posts he commented. Similar to Alan, Nes seems commented to almost every posts in the Free West Papua Campaign page.
Wybee Marang Dannah’s Direct Network to Commented Posts The highlight in this social network shows how user Wybee Marang Dannah connected directly to all posts he commented. He seems commented to almost every posts in the Free West Papua Campaign page.
Adolf Wellip’s Direct Network to Commented Posts The highlight in this social network shows how user Adolf Wellip connected directly to all posts he commented. He seems commented to almost most posts in the Free West Papua Campaign page.
Comparison of Total Conversations in 20 Facebook Pages The Facebook Page FWPC is the most active one. Followed by Goura Victoria West Papua, FWPC Australia, KNPB, The ULMWP EU Mission, and FWPC Micronesia. The Pro-government Suara Papua Saya Indonesia' volume is small.
Trends of Conversations in 20 Facebook Pages The trends of total conversation in the 20 Facebook Pages related to Free West Papua. The most active Facebook Page is Free West Papua Campaign. (Note: data available for FWPC as of 23rd Sep)
Social Network of top 10 Facebook Pages This social network shows how the Pages connected to each other based on the behavior of users commenting the posts from various pages. The FWPC page becomes the center and connector of the network. A group of users active in many pages.
Social Network of ULMWP and @FreeWestPapua FWPC Facebook Pages This social networks shows direct connection of the ULMWP pages and three Free West Papua related campaign pages with their active users. Some users (e.g. Viva Pacion) can be found in several pages.
Social Networks of 4 Top Users in Multiple Pages These social networks shows examples of 4 top users that are active in multiple Facebook Pages. Alan Knox is active in 3 pages especially from Australia. Viva Pacion, Duddley Rads, and Robson Urai active in 5-7 pages.
Social Networks of Less Connected Pages The West Papua National Committee [KNPB] and GPAN West Papua pages shared less number of users with other Free West Papua Campaign pages. Both pages have admins from Indonesia.
Social Network of top 10 Free (West) Papua Campaigns This social network only shows Facebook Pages related to the Free (West) Papua campaigns and movements. From this network we can see the close interaction between the pages based on their users’ comment behavior.
Social Network of Most Active Users in FWP Campaigns These are social networks of Duddley Rads and Robson Urai, examples of users that are very active in multiple Facebook Pages. Looking at their profiles, they are not from West Papua, but live in Solomon and PNG.
The Locations of @FreeWestPapua Campaign Admins The following are 6 Facebook Pages of FWP campaigns and movements. From the page transparency we can see the location of their admins. Most of them have admins in the United Kingdom, and all of them are from outside of Indonesia.
Hashtags in the top 4 @FreeWestPapua Pages From the 4 Free (West) Papua pages (FWP Campaign, FWPC Australia, FPM Vanuatu, and FWPC Micronesia), we can see their main hashtags share the same mission: #.FreeWestPapua, #.Referandum, and #.WestPapuaUprising.
Conclusion
- There is a pattern of coordinated Facebook Page campaign promoting the freedom of West Papua, that can be seen from:
- The similarity of their Facebook Page names, the difference is by the name of country or city of the campaign.
- The close relationship between the Facebook Pages as shown in the Social Network Analysis of users behavior when commenting posts.
- Some users are very active in multiple Facebook Pages, so they can transmit messages from one Facebook Page to other pages.
- The location of Facebook Pages’ administrators where at least one of them is in the United Kingdom, leading to a thought that UK is probably the center of this coordinated campaign, and the Free West Papua Campaign is the main campaign page. - The coordinated campaign is operated by non-Papuan, that can be concluded from:
- The profiles of the most active users in the main page are non-Papuan.
- The profiles of the most active users in the multiple pages are non-Papuan. - The main goal of the campaign can be seen from the hashtags that consistently used across the pages: the freedom of West Papua from Indonesia, through #.WestPapuaUprising and #.Referandum.
- There is a strong confidence that there is an “Influence Operation” by an international community network, aimed at:
- Gathering international support for the freedom of West Papua from Indonesia.
- Urging local people in West Papua for ”uprising” and “referandum.”
My Opinion
General voting or referandum very likely is not a wise solution, because:
- extremely open to abuse
- misused as a legitimation tool
- badly informed citizens vote
- some issues have been populistically manipulated
We need education, just, and prosperity.
